Abstract
　Urban natural disasters are characterized with the catastrophe due to over-population and dense compilation of urban infrastructures including lifelines. In urban natural disasters, a population density is the most important factor which amplifies the damages to human lives and property The law of risk to life can predict that the maximum loss of life in the future recurrence of the Kanto earthquake reaches to around 150,000. The scenarios of the catastrophe should be made clear for prevention or mitigation of the disaster. It is also pointed out that the maturity of disaster culture can introduce the adequate scenarios about the law of causality between natural forces and resulting impact on our society.

【キーワード】：災害文化，巨大災害，都市災害，死亡リスク，人口密度，地震水害，地下空間，平均寿命

*京都大学防災研究所附属防災科学資料センター
Information Processing Center for Disaster Prevention Studies, Disaster Pravention Research Institute, Kyoto University