Abstract
　Trends in annual number and central atmospheric pressure of typhoon landfalls in Japan are represented by a combination of two stochastic models; that is, a periodic Poisson model and a self exciting model. Based on the models an unstationary annual maxima probability distribution of central pressures is formulated, and future fluctuations for the 30-year period are simulated. The unstationary joint probability of the peak rainfall intensity and the maximum storm surge caused by a typhoon in the Osaka area are formulated considering that the typhoon course east or west of the apse line of Osaka Bay makes a great difference in the characteristics of storm surges, peak rainfall intensities and their cross-correlation structures. The concurrent probabilities of storm surges and peak rainfall intensities at Osaka are evaluated for the past 90-year period 1901− 1990 and for the future 30-year period 1991−2020.

【キーワード】：日本上陸台風，経年変動，高潮，降雨，同時生起性
Key words: typhoon landfall in Japan, annual trend, storm surge, rainfall, concurrence

*徳島大学工学部建設工学科
Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Tokushima