Abstract
　Practical Monte Carlo simulation technique is proposed for estimating the functional performance measures of an electric power system with a high degree of accuracy immediately after an earthquake and after the operation of system switching. Detailed network characteristics particular to substation are discussed, and new idea is introduced for assessing an area of service interruption in substation facilities. The system serviceability is evaluated in accordance with functional requirements through network flow analysis. Its performance evaluation is done on a sound physical basis of characteristics of electlic power faccilities. A case study is made for the network model of a hypothetical electric power system with a large generating capacity, to examine the usefulness of the present method. The distribution control and its effect on possible flows and capacity of supply hindrance are also examined quantitatively.

【キーワード】：電力供給システム, 震災, 被害予測, 機能特性, ケーススタディ

*京都大学工学部
Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto Univ.