学会誌「自然災害科学」

瀬戸内海西部海域沿岸における台風時波浪の極値とその統計的変動の推定

Estimation of Extremes of Typhoon-Generated Waves and Their Statistical Variability at Coastal Area of the Western Seto Inland Sea

山口 正隆*・畑田 佳男*・田窪 宏朗**

Masataka YAMAGUCHI*, Yoshio HATADA* and Hiroaki TAKUBO**

Abstract

Wave hindcastings with high topographical resolution were conducted at the selected points which are situated near the coast of the Western Seto Inland Sea. The hindcasted results at a wave observation point for many recent typhoons show good agreement with the observed results. Based on wave hindcastings for more than 100 typhoons which occurred over the period of 1945 to 1992, wave heights for return periods of 50 to 1,000 years and their statistical variability were estimated at each point. Return wave heights and their statistical variability were also evaluated from a data set of maximum wave heights hindcasted for more than l,700 strong typhoons which were simulated over 1,000 years by use of a stochastic typhoon model and 100 data sets of maximum wave heights for more than 80 strong typhoons which were simulated over 50 years by use of the typhoon model. The conclusion drawn is that at most points there is only a slight difference between return wave height characteristics estimated with the two methods.

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