学会誌「自然災害科学」

わが国沿岸における気象・海象要素の極値の推定

Estimation of Extremes of Meteorological and Oceanographic Elements along the Coasts of Japan

山口 正隆*・畑田 佳男*・大福 学*

Masataka YAMAGUCHI*, Yoshio HATADA* and Manabu OHFUKU*

Abstract

This paper presents 100-year return values and the confidence intervals of meteorological and oceanographic elements estimated through extreme data analysis of long term observation data acquired along the coasts of Japan. The elements are the annual maximums of wind speed, temperature, daily range of temperature and daily amount of precipitation, annual minimum of temperature, typhoon-induced minimum atmospheric pressure and maximum storm surge height, and annual maximum of wave height. The least square method proposed by Goda is applied to the extreme data analysis. The analysis shows that the method gives generally reasonable estimates for extremes of the elements and that the resulting return value of each element reflects the climatic properties along the coasts of Japan in the mean sense but that extension of the method to the case of sharper data distribution is required for more general use.

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