学会誌「自然災害科学」

山口県における豪雨災害危険度の評価と危険地域の区分に関する研究

A Study on Assessment of the Degree of Risk and Grouping of the Dangerous Areas Caused by Heavy Rainfall in Yamaguchi Prefecture

張 継権*・早川 誠而**

Jiquan ZHANG* and Seiji HAYAKAWA**

Abstract

The disaster caused by heavy rainfall is one of the most important natural hazards in Japan, and affects on human existence and social development. So the study on assessment of the degree of risk and grouping of the dangerous areas caused by heavy rainfall is very important to prevent and reduce the losses due to heavy rainfall. In this paper, the disaster caused by heavy rainfall is regarded as the multiple system correlating to natural conditions, social and economical conditions and some complex chronological changes. Firstly, the relationships between the disaster and natural, social and economical conditions are systematically analyzed, and then proposed the concept of the degree of risk caused by heavy rainfall is proposed. Secondly, on the basis of above study, the standard of criteria system for assessment of the degree of risk is established. The quantification of the standards of assessment factors is given according to the gray correlation analysis. Thirdly, the assessment model for the degree of risk caused by heavy rainfall is proposed by weighing comprehensive analysis method and AHP method. Finally, using the above model, assessment of the degree of risk and grouping of the dangerous areas caused by heavy rainfall in Yamaguchi Prefecture have been analyzed, and the degree of risk was classified into 4 types such as Heavy danger degree, Middle danger degree, Light danger degree and Slight danger degree.

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