学会誌「自然災害科学」

自然災害科学45 Vol.17,No.1, 1998, p45f

【論文】[Regular Paper]

類別化手法に基づくわが国沿岸での風速および波高の極値の推定

Estimation of Extremes of Wind Speed and Wave Height around the Coasts of Japan Based on Categorized Sampling Technique

山口 正隆*・大福 学*・畑田 佳男*

Masataka YAMAGUCHI*, Manabu OHFUKU* and Yoshio HATADA*

Abstract

This paper discusses the availability of a categorized data sampling technique in the extreme analysis. According to the class of meteorological disturbance and the class of some period in a year such as the season or month, four kinds of categorized maximum wind speed data sets are made from daily maximum wind speed data gathered over 16 to 34 years at 23 lighthouses around the coasts of Japan. The optimum distribution and the return wind speed with the standard deviation are estimated for each of categorized data sets by use of a modified version of Goda's extreme analysis model based on the least square method. Comparison among the results estimated from annual maximum data and those estimated from categorized data reveals that the data categorization method is not so advantageous over the usual method except for the cases where typhoon-generated winds are dominant. A similar conclusion is obtained from the investigation using the wave height data around the coasts of Japan.

キーワード:

類別化手法，年最大風速・波高資料，再現確率統計量・信頼区間，最小２乗法，日本沿岸

Key words:

categorized sampling technique, annual maximum data of wind speed and wave height, return value and confidence interval, least square method, coasts of Japan
*
愛媛大学工学部環境建設工学科
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ehime University