学会誌「自然災害科学」

自然災害科学46 Vol.17,No.2, 1998, p177f

【論文】[Regular Paper]

降雨モデルを用いた土砂災害予測の試み

An Experiment of Landslide Forecasting Using a Mesoscale Rainfall Model

三隅 良平*

Ryohei MISUMI*

Abstract

A forecast experiment of landslide is conducted with the use of a mesoscale rainfall model. The rainfall model is physically based, which predicts rainfall at 2 km grid intervals. The predicted rainfall is inputted into an empirical formula and the occurrence of landslide is evaluated. We applied the model to the landslide disaster caused by Typhoon 9307. The model predicted 48% and 82% of the study area as the occurrence regions of severe and non-severe landslides, respectively. Actually two severe and nine non-severe landslides occurred in these regions. The results suggest the possibility of landslide forecasting with the use of a rainfall model. However, some problems were pointed out through the experiments; for example, the predicted landslide regions were too wide compared with the actual ones. We discuss how the problems will be improved.

キーワード:

豪雨，土石流，降雨モデル，台風，地滑り

Key words:

heavy rain, debris flow, rainfall model, typhoon, landslide
*
科学技術庁防災科学研究所
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention